New Wave of AI-first Devices (Part 3: AI x novel form factors)
In the upcoming new wave of AI-first devices, those with novel or less familiar form factors capture the imagination the most. To increase the likelihood of success, I recommend considering choices in four areas: needs, trends, experience, and timing.
The Needs
Products are meant to satisfy the needs of the users. Those needs are often manifested in expressed (needs users explicitly state they have), implicit (needs users take for granted), or latent (unmet needs that users can’t yet imagine or articulate) formats. It's helpful to rate these needs from the perspective of competition, challenges, short-term and long-term value, and examine the most suitable form factor for each.
Expressed needs create a moderately competitive market as many companies aim to address the known challenges. The difficulty lies in differentiating through outstanding features, pricing, and branding. The rewards include rapid customer adoption and potential brand loyalty if these needs are consistently met over time. To address these needs, well-established and familiar form factors are preferred, as expressed needs often arise from issues with existing solutions. Users are likely comfortable with the general shape and functions of an existing device. Enhancing user value involves improving existing form factors with better features, materials, and/or user experience.
Implicit needs present an opportunity for businesses to differentiate themselves from competitors due to lower existing competition. The challenge lies in truly understanding unspoken desires and designing solutions that resonate strongly. Addressing implicit needs can surprise and delight users, leading to greater brand differentiation and offering strong long-term value. To meet implicit needs, familiar or slightly novel devices can be suitable because solutions usually build upon what users already know. A smartwatch is a great example here because it borrows from a traditional watch form factor but greatly expands its capabilities with features like health tracking and notifications.
Addressing latent needs can lead to market disruption and solidify a brand's reputation for innovation. These needs initially face low competition due to their futuristic nature, but accurately predicting market demands and investing in potentially lengthy development cycles are crucial. Adoption may be step by step, requiring market education, but the potential payoff can be immense. Meeting latent needs often involves introducing novel form factors that aim to revolutionize how we do things. Success in this area hinges on effective user education and acceptance. While the form factor may be new, it should be intuitive and offer large and perceivable value.
It’s easy to discuss the needs separately, but the lines can blur in real life. A device is possible to combine and incorporate solutions for different needs. Therefore, the most suitable form factor depends on the product's hero positioning. Mixing and matching features to meet expressed and implicit needs is entirely possible, but addressing latent needs requires much more dedication. Otherwise, users will face the challenge of learning new tricks to accomplish familiar and easy tasks. For instance, Ai Pin asks users to laser-project onto their palms the content that isn't an issue for users with a phone screen.
The Trends
When a brave founder decides to build a novel product after assessing the market demand, technical feasibility, and financial requirements, she can draw inspiration from past successful revolutionary products. Think about Sony’s Walkman (1979) and Apple’s iPod (2001) for portable music players, Motorola DynaTAC 8000X (1983) and Nokia 3310 (2000) for mobile phones, and Xerox Alto (1973), IBM ThinkPad 700C (1992), and Palm Pilot (1997) for computing devices. Several recurring themes emerge:
Convergence. A super device such as a smartphone is a phone, a camera, a music player, a web browser, a document reader, and many more all in one.
Miniaturization & portability. Devices have evolved from bulky and stationary to sleek, pocket-sized, and mobile.
New interaction paradigms. Input methods have progressed from buttons to touchscreens to multimodal interactions through voice, gesture, vision, and more.
While these trends continue with the advent of new technologies, I believe significant opportunities lie in divergence too. There is a Chinese adage at the beginning of the classic novel Romance of the Three Kingdoms, saying “the general trend of the world is that long periods of divisions will be followed by unity and long periods of unity will be followed by division”. In the realm of products, such “re-division” does not involve separating what has converged. Instead, it signifies a dramatic upgrade in utility and user experience for specific purposes. It addresses areas that a comprehensive superdevice may not adequately cover or are beyond its physical reach.
Before the emergence of another super device, I am optimistic about purpose-driven devices that excel in one or two specific functions and that consumers are willing to pay for. These devices offer a level of depth and specialization that a super device cannot match, catering to specific user needs and desires more effectively and thoroughly.
The Experience
The path of novel products is full of sideways, pitfalls, and avalanches, predictably. The biggest one is likely neglecting the target audience when designing and messaging the product. To better understand the challenge of a new form factor to users, we can use the user journey as a framework for a quick comparison.
As expected, the unfamiliar device demands the most user effort. Initial setup may require detailed tutorials, possibly including unique steps or calibration. During daily use, users may face a steeper learning curve due to the lack of familiar use cases. If the initial experience is limited or frustrating, users may need to update the device faster. Zooming in on these potentially difficult stages, we can easily generate a list of new tricks users must learn (see Appendix A), such as physical interactions, software interface, navigation, and so on. The question of “does it have to be new” should be asked to each one on the list.
Like every coin has two sides, the expected friction points along the user journey can be utilized to exceed users’ expectations. When users assume they must learn physical interactions on a new gadget, they are pleasantly surprised by not having to do so or doing it in a much better way. A (perhaps controversial) example introduced by Apple Vision Pro is the eye-hand combined interaction paradigm. It may take some time to get used to, but it is not a difficult task because it goes back to how we naturally interact with things around us in the physical world.
The Timing
Underlying technologies often exist for years before truly groundbreaking form factors emerge, resulting in extended incubation periods. Once current technologies pass inflection points, innovation based on them will experience accelerated growth, narrowing the gap between iconic devices. Successful form factors are refined over multiple generations. Therefore, one should take criticism of first-generation devices seriously to address issues for a better next generation, but not abandon the journey that all predecessors have undertaken.
The timing of launching a novel product is often a subject of debate. Much like meteorologists' inability to accurately predict rainfall, product launch timing involves probability. One factor that can impact the probability of success is launching a product that fails to deliver on its promises. It's understandable that today's tech competition demands rapid iteration of both software and hardware. However, the market implications of the differences between theoretical and practical usability are substantial. Is the product an MVP, a demo, an experiment, or a finished product? Different stages require different messaging and introduction strategies. A mismatch can lead to harsh criticism and even damage to the emerging brand. An ideal launch timing is when the hero feature functions exceptionally well, and the product's value closely aligns with its pricing.
Final Words
The swimlane of novel form factors is full of trailblazers who have the most sweat, tears, creativity, and long-term success. Without these pioneering builders in this unconventional category, we wouldn’t be able to use many consumer electronics we use and rely on today. Tinkers and makers are particularly drawn to this category because it of its vast space of imagination and creativity. While they may have to prepare for many uphill battles and even repeated failures, their courage and willingness to roll up their sleeves deserve admiration.
Let’s keep building!
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Appendix A: A list of potential new things to learn by users with a new unfamiliar gadget
Physical Interaction - With a new form factor, the way users physically interact with the device can change significantly. This includes understanding how to hold, wear, or manipulate the device effectively, which might differ from previous devices they've used.
Navigation and Controls - New devices often introduce unique navigation gestures, button layouts, or touch controls that users must familiarize themselves with to operate the device efficiently.
Software Interface - A new software interface may come with its own set of icons, menus, and interaction paradigms. Users will need to learn how to navigate through these to access the features and functionalities they need.
Customization Options - Understanding the range of customization available in new devices is crucial. This includes setting preferences for notifications, accessibility options, and possibly even physical adjustments or attachments for the device.
Connectivity and Integration - Learning how the new device connects with and integrates into existing ecosystems of devices and services is another learning curve. This includes syncing with smartphones, computers, or other smart devices, and understanding the data exchange between these devices.
Feature-Specific Usage - New software tools designed to leverage the unique capabilities of the device may require users to learn specific commands, gestures, or voice prompts. This is especially true for AI-powered features that respond to natural language input or context-aware commands.
Security and Privacy Settings - With new devices often collecting and processing personal data, users must understand how to manage privacy settings, permissions for data access, and any new authentication methods (like biometric data) to secure their devices and personal information.
Maintenance and Troubleshooting - Understanding the maintenance needs of a new device, including charging protocols, software updates, and troubleshooting common issues, is essential to ensure longevity and optimal performance.
Community and Support - Finally, users may need to learn where to find community support, official customer service, and tutorials or guides that can help them maximize the use of their new device.